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Overview

Event

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

Date

2026-01-24

Location

Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett is an intriguing lineup with a premier focus on striking and well-rounded skills, given the absence of pure grapplers or fighters with specific specialties like takedown artists or defensive wizards. The headlining fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will likely be a striking showdown, given both fighters' high bonus count, a testament to their entertaining and dynamic fighting styles. The absence of fighters on win or loss streaks suggests a balanced card, with potential for upsets and impressive performances. Former champions, including Gaethje, Nunes, Harrison, Namajunas, O'Malley, and Figueiredo, bring an experienced edge to the event, with their past championship experiences likely to play a significant role in their fights. No specific style dominates the card, with a majority being well-rounded fighters. This suggests a balanced mix of striking and grappling, offering potential for diverse fights. Notably, a lack of accurate strikers or volume strikers might indicate fewer striking exchanges, placing emphasis on fight IQ and strategy. The presence of numerous bonus leaders implies that the event could feature high-action fights, given that bonuses are often awarded for exceptional performances. Fighters like Gaethje, Pimblett, and Nunes, known for their crowd-pleasing styles, are likely to engage in exciting exchanges. In summary, UFC 324 is set to be a technically diverse event, with a focus on well-rounded skills and striking. The absence of clear streaks and specialties suggests a competitive, unpredictable fight card, with experienced former champions looking to leverage their past successes. The high number of bonus leaders hints at potential for spectacular fights, defined by smart strategizing and dynamic performances.

Event Statistics

Fighting Styles

  • 15 strikers
  • 6 grapplers
  • 7 well-rounded fighters

Notable Records

  • Fighters on win streaks: Paddy Pimblett (5 wins), Charles Johnson (3 wins), Jean Silva (4 wins), Natalia Silva (5 wins), Deiveson Figueiredo (5 wins)
  • Fighters on loss streaks: Alex Perez (3 losses)
  • Current champions: None
  • Former champions: Justin Gaethje, Amanda Nunes, Kayla Harrison, Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo
  • Bonus leaders: Justin Gaethje (13 bonuses), Paddy Pimblett (5 bonuses), Alex Perez (6 bonuses), Charles Johnson (3 bonuses), Arnold Allen (3 bonuses), Jean Silva (4 bonuses), Ateba Gautier (3 bonuses), Amanda Nunes (6 bonuses), Alexander Hernandez (5 bonuses), Michael Johnson (7 bonuses), Rose Namajunas (7 bonuses), Modestas Bukauskas (3 bonuses), Nikita Krylov (4 bonuses), Sean O'Malley (10 bonuses), Song Yadong (6 bonuses), Deiveson Figueiredo (6 bonuses), Umar Nurmagomedov (3 bonuses), Derrick Lewis (12 bonuses)

Fight History

  • Rivalries: No previous matchups

Fighter Specialties

  • Accurate Strikers (50%+ accuracy): Justin Gaethje (58% accuracy), Paddy Pimblett (53% accuracy), Jean Silva (51% accuracy), Andrey Pulyaev (60% accuracy), Ateba Gautier (60% accuracy), Denzel Freeman (62% accuracy), Josh Hokit (69% accuracy), Amanda Nunes (51% accuracy), Kayla Harrison (62% accuracy), Nikita Krylov (54% accuracy), Sean O'Malley (61% accuracy), Deiveson Figueiredo (54% accuracy), Umar Nurmagomedov (57% accuracy)
  • Defensive Wizards (60%+ defense): Ty Miller (70% defense), Arnold Allen (61% defense), Denzel Freeman (61% defense), Kayla Harrison (66% defense), Natalia Silva (65% defense), Rose Namajunas (63% defense)
  • Volume Strikers (5+ SLpM): Justin Gaethje (6.6 SLpM), Paddy Pimblett (5.2 SLpM), Ty Miller (5.6 SLpM), Ateba Gautier (6.6 SLpM), Josh Hokit (5.1 SLpM), Natalia Silva (5.0 SLpM), Sean O'Malley (6.3 SLpM), Waldo Cortes Acosta (5.5 SLpM)
  • Takedown Artists (3+ TD avg): Josh Hokit (12.8 TD avg), Umar Nurmagomedov (4.3 TD avg)

Fight Card

Main Card

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Main Event β€’ 155 lbs. lbs
Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller Co-Main β€’ 170 lbs. lbs
Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson 125 lbs. lbs
Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva 145 lbs. lbs
Andrey Pulyaev vs. Ateba Gautier 185 lbs. lbs

Preliminary Card

Denzel Freeman vs. Josh Hokit 265 lbs. lbs
Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison 135 lbs. lbs
Alexander Hernandez vs. Michael Johnson 155 lbs. lbs
Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas 125 lbs. lbs
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Nikita Krylov 205 lbs. lbs
Cameron Smotherman vs. Ricky Turcios 135 lbs. lbs
Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong 135 lbs. lbs
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Umar Nurmagomedov 135 lbs. lbs
Derrick Lewis vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta 260 lbs. lbs

Main Event

Justin Gaethje

Record: 26-5-0

Height: 5' 11"

Reach: 70.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 6.59

Takedown Avg: 0.10

Paddy Pimblett

Record: 23-3-0

Height: 5' 10"

Reach: 73.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 5.19

Takedown Avg: 0.96

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Predicted Winner: Justin Gaethje

Probability: Justin Gaethje: 70.1% vs Paddy Pimblett: 29.9%

Bet Size: 16.4%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Justin Gaethje

Probability: Justin Gaethje: 63.6% vs Paddy Pimblett: 36.4%

Bet Size: 13.5%

Statistically, Gaethje has a striking advantage, landing 6.59 strikes/min compared to Pimblett's 5.19. This could allow him to control the fight's tempo. Pimblett, however, has a longer reach by 3 inches, which could aid him in maintaining distance. His takedown average of 0.96 is significantly higher than Gaethje's 0.10, indicating a more grappling-focused style. This contrast in styles will likely result in a striking versus grappling matchup. Gaethje might keep the fight standing, while Pimblett might attempt takedowns and control on the ground. The models favor Gaethje: the Random Forest predicts a 70.1% chance of his victory, while Logistic Regression gives him a 63.6% chance. These predictions likely rely on Gaethje's superior striking rate and his previous performance data. Despite Pimblett's grappling advantage, Gaethje's striking may be a deciding factor, as takedowns are less frequent in UFC fights than strikes. However, the variance in model predictions suggests some level of uncertainty, possibly due to Pimblett's reach advantage and superior grappling. The fight outcome could significantly depend on who better employs their strategy.

Co-Main Event

Adam Fugitt

Record: 10-5-0

Height: 6' 1"

Reach: 77.0"

Stance: Southpaw

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.59

Takedown Avg: 1.83

Ty Miller

Record: 6-0-0

Height: 6' 2"

Reach: 77.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 5.60

Takedown Avg: 0.00

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Missing stats for Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller. Ty Miller is DWCS-only

Logistic Regression:

Missing stats for Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller. Ty Miller is DWCS-only

Adam Fugitt and Ty Miller present an intriguing matchup, both standing over six feet with a reach of 77 inches. Fugitt, a southpaw, has a record of 10-5-0, landing 4.59 strikes per minute and averaging 1.83 takedowns. On the other hand, Miller, an orthodox fighter, is undefeated with 6-0-0, boasting a higher striking rate of 5.6 strikes per minute, though he lacks takedown skills. The model predictions indicate missing data, rendering both Random Forest and Logistic Regression unable to provide probabilities, hence no bet suggestion. Fugitt's grappling advantage could play a significant role if he can navigate Miller's superior striking. However, the orthodox vs southpaw dynamic might complicate matters, potentially favoring the more versatile fighter. Further data would facilitate more accurate predictions.

Fight 3

Alex Perez

Record: 25-10-0

Height: 5' 6"

Reach: 65.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.16

Takedown Avg: 2.28

Charles Johnson

Record: 18-7-0

Height: 5' 9"

Reach: 70.0"

Stance: Switch

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.73

Takedown Avg: 0.56

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

No bet: Alex Perez (prob: 0.5569) vs Charles Johnson (prob: 0.4431) - below confidence threshold 0.6

Probability: Alex Perez: 55.7% vs Charles Johnson: 44.3%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Charles Johnson

Probability: Alex Perez: 23.0% vs Charles Johnson: 77.0%

Bet Size: 8.3%

Analyzing Perez and Johnson, Perez's takedown average (2.28) significantly surpasses Johnson's (0.56), indicating his superior wrestling ability. However, Johnson boasts a higher strikes landed per minute rate (4.73 vs. 4.16), suggesting a potential edge in stand-up. Johnson's 5" reach advantage could aid his striking, especially considering his switch stance, offering more variety. Perez, though, with his orthodox stance, may find success with takedowns when Johnson switches to a southpaw stance. Statistically, Perez’s advantage on the ground and Johnson's striking edge are key factors. The model predictions reflect these dynamics. Random Forest remains indecisive, placing Perez slightly ahead, but below its confidence threshold. Logistic Regression, however, predicts Johnson as the likely winner, possibly due to his striking advantage and reach. This fight could hinge on whether Perez can effectively take Johnson down, testing Johnson's takedown defense and Perez's ability to overcome the reach disadvantage.

Fight 4

Arnold Allen

Record: 20-3-0

Height: 5' 8"

Reach: 70.0"

Stance: Southpaw

Strikes Landed/Min: 3.45

Takedown Avg: 0.93

Jean Silva

Record: 16-3-0

Height: 5' 7"

Reach: 69.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.79

Takedown Avg: 0.50

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Predicted Winner: Jean Silva

Probability: Arnold Allen: 28.7% vs Jean Silva: 71.3%

Logistic Regression:

No bet: Arnold Allen (prob: 0.5359) vs Jean Silva (prob: 0.4641) - below confidence threshold 0.6

Probability: Arnold Allen: 53.6% vs Jean Silva: 46.4%

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Arnold Allen and Jean Silva present contrasting styles. Allen, a southpaw, holds a slight height and reach advantage, potentially allowing him to control distance. However, Silva's orthodox stance could neutralize this, given the inherent difficulties southpaws face against orthodox fighters. Silva lands more strikes per minute (4.79 vs 3.45), indicating a more aggressive style. Despite this, Allen's higher takedown average (0.93 vs 0.50) suggests superior grappling, which could counter Silva's striking. The Random Forest model predicts Silva as the winner, likely due to his striking advantage. Conversely, the Logistic Regression model shows no clear favorite, reflecting the fighters' balanced stats. These predictions suggest a closely contested fight, with Silva's striking against Allen's grappling. The outcome may hinge on Allen's ability to take Silva down and Silva's success in keeping the fight standing.

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Fight 5

Andrey Pulyaev

Record: 10-3-0

Height: 6' 4"

Reach: 78.0"

Stance: Southpaw

Strikes Landed/Min: 3.81

Takedown Avg: 0.41

Ateba Gautier

Record: 9-1-0

Height: 6' 4"

Reach: 81.0"

Stance: Switch

Strikes Landed/Min: 6.57

Takedown Avg: 0.98

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

No bet: Ateba Gautier (prob: 0.5259) vs Andrey Pulyaev (prob: 0.4741) - below confidence threshold 0.6

Probability: Andrey Pulyaev: 52.6% vs Ateba Gautier: 47.4%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Andrey Pulyaev

Probability: Andrey Pulyaev: 32.7% vs Ateba Gautier: 67.3%

Bet Size: 18.6%

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Analyzing Andrey Pulyaev and Ateba Gautier's UFC statistics, insightful comparisons and predictions arise. Gautier, with a 9-1-0 record, boasts a higher strikes-per-minute rate (6.57) and takedown average (0.98) than Pulyaev (3.81 and 0.41 respectively). His superior reach (81.0") over Pulyaev's (78.0") potentially enhances these advantages. Conversely, Pulyaev, a southpaw, may exploit Gautier's switch stance, causing unpredictability. The Random Forest model's prediction is inconclusive, with probabilities below the 0.6 threshold. However, the Logistic Regression model favors Gautier significantly (67.3% vs 32.7%), possibly influenced by his striking and takedown superiority. Style-wise, Gautier's striking might pressure Pulyaev, who could attempt to disrupt with takedowns. But Gautier's better takedown average suggests a capacity to counter. Overall, this fight presents a competitive dynamic, where strategic utilization of strengths and mitigation of weaknesses will be key.

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Fight 6

Denzel Freeman

Record: 7-1-0

Height: 6' 1"

Reach: 77.0"

Stance: Southpaw

Strikes Landed/Min: 3.27

Takedown Avg: 0.00

Josh Hokit

Record: 7-0-0

Height: 6' 1"

Reach: 73.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 5.12

Takedown Avg: 12.80

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Missing stats for Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman. Both fighters are DWCS-only

Logistic Regression:

Missing stats for Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman. Both fighters are DWCS-only

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Denzel Freeman and Josh Hokit present a compelling matchup, both holding impressive records. Freeman, a southpaw, boasts a 4" reach advantage, which could be beneficial in striking exchanges. His striking rate, however, is lower (3.27) compared to Hokit's (5.12). Hokit, an orthodox fighter, has a significant edge in takedowns, averaging 12.8, contrasting Freeman's 0.00. This suggests Hokit's strategy might focus on grappling, while Freeman may rely on distance management to leverage his reach. Model predictions are inconclusive due to insufficient data, indicating no available probabilities for betting. This lack of data could stem from both fighters being DWCS-only, limiting their statistical history. Hokit's takedown proficiency against Freeman's reach advantage creates an intriguing stylistic clash. Freeman's challenge would be to keep the fight standing, utilizing his reach to maintain distance. Conversely, Hokit's success may depend on closing the distance to execute takedowns, neutralizing Freeman's reach advantage.

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Fight 7

Amanda Nunes

Record: 23-5-0

Height: 5' 8"

Reach: 69.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.55

Takedown Avg: 2.73

Kayla Harrison

Record: 19-1-0

Height: 5' 8"

Reach: 66.0"

Stance: Southpaw

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.29

Takedown Avg: 2.84

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Predicted Winner: Amanda Nunes

Probability: Amanda Nunes: 21.9% vs Kayla Harrison: 78.1%

Bet Size: 19.8%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Amanda Nunes

Probability: Amanda Nunes: 2.2% vs Kayla Harrison: 97.8%

Bet Size: 23.9%

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Amanda Nunes and Kayla Harrison are statistically similar. Both stand at 5'8", though Nunes has a 3" reach advantage, which could aid in striking distance. Nunes lands more strikes per minute (4.55) compared to Harrison's 4.29, potentially indicating superior striking efficiency. However, Harrison's takedown average is slightly higher (2.84) than Nunes' 2.73, suggesting a possible edge in grappling. The stance difference, with Nunes being Orthodox and Harrison Southpaw, could lead to interesting exchanges, as southpaw fighters often present unique challenges for orthodox fighters. The model predictions favor Harrison heavily, despite Nunes' reach advantage and striking rate. This could be due to Harrison's superior takedown average, record, and perhaps her southpaw stance. The betting size suggests confidence in these predictions. In the fight, Nunes may seek to exploit her reach and striking advantage while Harrison might focus on grappling, capitalizing on her takedown prowess. Combining these factors, they are likely to offer a balanced, highly technical fight.

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Fight 8

Alexander Hernandez

Record: 18-8-0

Height: 5' 9"

Reach: 72.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.31

Takedown Avg: 1.14

Michael Johnson

Record: 25-19-0

Height: 5' 10"

Reach: 73.0"

Stance: Southpaw

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.28

Takedown Avg: 0.58

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Predicted Winner: Alexander Hernandez

Probability: Alexander Hernandez: 37.4% vs Michael Johnson: 62.6%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Alexander Hernandez

Probability: Alexander Hernandez: 19.5% vs Michael Johnson: 80.5%

Bet Size: 13.3%

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Alexander Hernandez, with an 18-8-0 record, has a slight edge in striking rate (4.31 to 4.28 strikes/min) and takedown average (1.14 to 0.58). However, Michael Johnson, with a 25-19-0 record, has a slight advantage in height (5'10" to 5'9") and reach (73.0" to 72.0"). Johnson's southpaw stance might pose difficulties for Hernandez's orthodox stance, potentially disrupting Hernandez's striking rhythm. Statistically, the models favor Johnson. The Random Forest model predicts a 62.6% chance of Johnson's victory, while Logistic Regression gives him an 80.5% chance. The predictions reflect Johnson's reach advantage and experience. However, Hernandez's higher takedown average could turn the tide if he manages to bring the fight to the ground. The suggested bet size of 13.3% indicates a high confidence in Johnson's win. In conclusion, while Johnson seems to have the upper hand, Hernandez's grappling skills cannot be overlooked.

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Fight 9

Natalia Silva

Record: 19-5-1

Height: 5' 4"

Reach: 65.0"

Stance: Southpaw

Strikes Landed/Min: 5.04

Takedown Avg: 0.34

Rose Namajunas

Record: 15-7-0

Height: 5' 5"

Reach: 65.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 3.60

Takedown Avg: 1.49

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

No bet: Natalia Silva (prob: 0.4951) vs Rose Namajunas (prob: 0.5049) - below confidence threshold 0.6

Probability: Natalia Silva: 49.5% vs Rose Namajunas: 50.5%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Rose Namajunas

Probability: Natalia Silva: 39.3% vs Rose Namajunas: 60.7%

Bet Size: 14.6%

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Natalia Silva and Rose Namajunas share similar physical attributes, both having a reach of 65.0", with Namajunas standing one inch taller. Silva, a southpaw, lands more strikes per minute (5.04) than orthodox fighter Namajunas (3.60), indicating a more aggressive stand-up game. Namajunas, however, has a higher takedown average (1.49) suggesting a more ground-oriented strategy. The contrasting styles may lead to a classic striker vs. grappler match-up. Silva's volume striking might conflict with Namajunas' takedown attempts, creating opportunities for counters. The statistical models reflect a close contest. The Random Forest model predicts a nearly even match, below the confidence threshold, hence no bet. The Logistic Regression, however, favors Namajunas (60.7%), possibly due to her grappling advantage. These predictions, coupled with the fighters' records, suggest a competitive bout that could swing in anyone's favor.

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Fight 10

Modestas Bukauskas

Record: 19-6-0

Height: 6' 3"

Reach: 76.0"

Stance: Switch

Strikes Landed/Min: 3.32

Takedown Avg: 0.30

Nikita Krylov

Record: 30-11-0

Height: 6' 3"

Reach: 77.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.31

Takedown Avg: 2.17

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

No bet: Nikita Krylov (prob: 0.5990) vs Modestas Bukauskas (prob: 0.4010) - below confidence threshold 0.6

Probability: Modestas Bukauskas: 59.9% vs Nikita Krylov: 40.1%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Nikita Krylov

Probability: Modestas Bukauskas: 69.1% vs Nikita Krylov: 30.9%

Bet Size: 13.4%

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Both fighters, Bukauskas and Krylov, share a similar height but Krylov has a slight advantage in reach. Bukauskas, with a switch stance, can provide unpredictability, but struggles with a lower strikes landed per minute rate (3.32) compared to Krylov's 4.31. Krylov holds a significant advantage in takedowns, averaging 2.17, dwarfing Bukauskas's 0.30. The model predictions reflect the statistical advantages favoring Krylov. The Random Forest model's prediction is inconclusive due to a confidence threshold below 0.6. However, Logistic Regression suggests a possible win for Krylov, with a 69.1% probability. In terms of style interaction, Krylov's orthodox stance and superior takedown average suggest he'll seek to control the fight on the ground, exploiting Bukauskas's lower takedown stats. Bukauskas, on the other hand, might rely on his switch stance to retain unpredictability in striking, although he needs to increase his striking rate to counter Krylov's advantage. These analyses are made considering their previous performances and inherent fighting styles. However, it's crucial to remember fights can be unpredictable, and the fighter's form on the day plays a significant role.

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Fight 11

Cameron Smotherman

Record: 12-6-0

Height: 5' 9"

Reach: 69.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.07

Takedown Avg: 0.00

Ricky Turcios

Record: 13-5-0

Height: 5' 9"

Reach: 71.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.73

Takedown Avg: 0.91

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Predicted Winner: Ricky Turcios

Probability: Cameron Smotherman: 73.1% vs Ricky Turcios: 26.9%

Bet Size: 17.2%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Ricky Turcios

Probability: Cameron Smotherman: 80.8% vs Ricky Turcios: 19.2%

Bet Size: 20.9%

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Analyzing both fighters, Cameron Smotherman and Ricky Turcios, they stand equal in height but Turcios has a 2" reach advantage. Statistically, Turcios lands more strikes per minute (4.73) than Smotherman (4.07) which, coupled with his superior reach, may provide an offensive edge. Smotherman's takedown average is 0.00, indicating a stand-up strategy, while Turcios has a takedown average of 0.91, indicating a mixed approach. Both fighters use an orthodox stance, suggesting a similar striking style. The Random Forest and Logistic Regression models predict Turcios as the winner, with 26.9% and 19.2% probabilities respectively. This could be due to Turcios's advantage in reach, strike rate, and takedown average. Their styles might interact interestingly, with Smotherman's stand-up game challenged by Turcios's versatile ground and stand-up strategy. Both fighters have similar records, suggesting closely matched skill levels. The models' bet sizes reflect the perceived risk, given the striking and grappling differentials.

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Fight 12

Sean O'Malley

Record: 18-3-0

Height: 5' 11"

Reach: 72.0"

Stance: Switch

Strikes Landed/Min: 6.30

Takedown Avg: 0.27

Song Yadong

Record: 22-8-1

Height: 5' 8"

Reach: 67.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.58

Takedown Avg: 0.61

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Predicted Winner: Sean O'Malley

Probability: Sean O'Malley: 72.7% vs Song Yadong: 27.3%

Bet Size: 6.2%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Sean O'Malley

Probability: Sean O'Malley: 91.3% vs Song Yadong: 8.7%

Bet Size: 22.4%

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O'Malley has a notable height and reach advantage over Yadong, standing at 5'11" with a 72" reach compared to Yadong's 5'8" and 67" reach. This could influence the stand-up game, especially given O'Malley's switch stance and higher strikes landed per minute (6.30 vs 4.58). However, Yadong has a superior takedown average (0.61 vs 0.27), potentially posing a challenge for O'Malley. Both Random Forest and Logistic Regression models predict O'Malley as the winner, with a higher confidence from the latter (91.3% vs 72.7%). This could be due to O'Malley's striking advantage and his more versatile stance. The interaction of styles might see O'Malley utilizing his striking and reach, while Yadong could look to close the distance and implement his wrestling. Using this data and fighter history, it seems O'Malley's striking could edge out Yadong's ground game, hence the models' predictions. However, MMA fights can be unpredictable, so these probabilities don't guarantee a win.

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Fight 13

Deiveson Figueiredo

Record: 25-5-1

Height: 5' 5"

Reach: 68.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 2.75

Takedown Avg: 1.71

Umar Nurmagomedov

Record: 19-1-0

Height: 5' 8"

Reach: 69.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 4.08

Takedown Avg: 4.30

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

No bet: Umar Nurmagomedov (prob: 0.5390) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (prob: 0.4610) - below confidence threshold 0.6

Probability: Deiveson Figueiredo: 53.9% vs Umar Nurmagomedov: 46.1%

Logistic Regression:

Predicted Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov

Probability: Deiveson Figueiredo: 79.7% vs Umar Nurmagomedov: 20.3%

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Figueiredo, with a 25-5-1 record, is a seasoned fighter. His orthodox stance combined with a 68" reach allows for effective striking, reflected in his 2.75 strikes landed/min. However, he's outmatched by Nurmagomedov's 4.08 strikes landed/min, who also benefits from a slightly superior reach (69") and height (5'8"). Figueiredo's takedown average is 1.71, significantly lower than Nurmagomedov's 4.30, indicating a potential disadvantage in ground combat. The Random Forest model predicts a close fight, slightly favoring Nurmagomedov (53.9% to 46.1%), while the Logistic Regression heavily leans towards Figueiredo (79.7% to 20.3%). Both predictions fall below the betting confidence threshold of 0.6, hinting at an unpredictable fight. Figueiredo's experience might counterbalance Nurmagomedov's statistical advantage, but Nurmagomedov's aggressive striking and takedown prowess could pose a challenge. The fight could hinge on Figueiredo's defensive skills against takedowns and his ability to land precise strikes.

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Fight 14

Derrick Lewis

Record: 29-12-0

Height: 6' 3"

Reach: 79.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 2.51

Takedown Avg: 0.56

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Record: 16-2-0

Height: 6' 4"

Reach: 78.0"

Stance: Orthodox

Strikes Landed/Min: 5.55

Takedown Avg: 0.35

Model Predictions

Random Forest:

Missing stats for Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis. Waldo Cortes Acosta is DWCS-only

Logistic Regression:

Missing stats for Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis. Waldo Cortes Acosta is DWCS-only

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In analyzing the statistical data provided for Derrick Lewis and Waldo Cortes Acosta, several technical contrasts emerge. Lewis, with a more extensive record (29-12-0) than Acosta (16-2-0), demonstrates experience, potentially advantageous in pressure situations. However, Acosta's superior Strikes Landed/Min (5.55) suggests a more active stand-up game than Lewis (2.51). Height and reach pose a negligible difference with both fighters adopting an orthodox stance. Lewis' higher Takedown Avg (0.56) indicates a preference for ground combat, contrasting Acosta's (0.35) stand-up bias. Model predictions couldn't be obtained due to missing stats, reflecting the fact that Acosta has only fought in DWCS. The interaction of their styles could result in a classic 'striker vs grappler' contest, with Acosta seeking to maintain distance with strikes, while Lewis aims for takedowns. Their respective fight strategies and adaptability will determine the outcome.

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Generated on January 14, 2026 at 10:28 AM