Event Summary

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | February 21, 2026

Fight Details

#1 Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Anthony Hernandez (78.1%)
Bet recommendation: Anthony Hernandez (-285) — Stake $5.00
Sean Strickland
Record: 29-7-0
Height: 6' 1"
Reach: 76"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 5.95
TD Avg: 0.73
Str Acc: 42%
Str Def: 60%
Anthony Hernandez
Record: 15-2-0
Height: 6' 0"
Reach: 75"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 4.59
TD Avg: 6.46
Str Acc: 62%
Str Def: 49%
#2 Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic (Welterweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Geoff Neal (67.5%)
Bet recommendation: Geoff Neal (-185) — Stake $4.75
Geoff Neal
Record: 16-7-0
Height: 5' 11"
Reach: 75"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 5.05
TD Avg: 0.54
Str Acc: 51%
Str Def: 57%
Uros Medic
Record: 12-3-0
Height: 6' 1"
Reach: 71"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 5.53
TD Avg: 0.35
Str Acc: 60%
Str Def: 56%
#3 Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa (Featherweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Melquizael Costa (61.6%)
Bet recommendation: Dan Ige (+175) — Stake $2.82
Dan Ige
Record: 19-10-0
Height: 5' 7"
Reach: 71"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.64
TD Avg: 0.89
Str Acc: 45%
Str Def: 56%
Melquizael Costa
Record: 25-7-0
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 71"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 4.42
TD Avg: 1.93
Str Acc: 49%
Str Def: 54%
#4 Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija (Heavyweight)
Model prediction: latest No prediction : Below confidence threshold (60%).
Bet recommendation: Serghei Spivac (+140) — Stake $4.37
Serghei Spivac
Record: 17-6-0
Height: 6' 3"
Reach: 78"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.45
TD Avg: 4.21
Str Acc: 48%
Str Def: 50%
Ante Delija
Record: 26-7-0
Height: 6' 3"
Reach: 78"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 4.81
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 45%
Str Def: 38%
#5 Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell (Welterweight)
Model prediction: latest No prediction : Missing odds for this fight.
Bet recommendation: Jacobe Smith (-122) — Stake $4.15
Jacobe Smith
Record: 11-0-0
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 72"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 6.21
TD Avg: 7.42
Str Acc: 66%
Str Def: 47%
Josiah Harrell
Record: 7-0-0
Height: 5' 7"
Reach: 68"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 0.00
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 0%
Str Def: 0%
#6 Zach Reese vs Michel Pereira (Middleweight)
Model prediction: latest No prediction : Below confidence threshold (60%).
Bet recommendation: Zach Reese (+122) — Stake $3.95
Zach Reese
Record: 10-2-0
Height: 6' 4"
Reach: 77"
Stance: Switch
SLpM: 4.32
TD Avg: 3.41
Str Acc: 56%
Str Def: 39%
Michel Pereira
Record: 31-14-0
Height: 6' 1"
Reach: 73"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 4.49
TD Avg: 1.13
Str Acc: 52%
Str Def: 51%
#7 Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal (Welterweight)
Model prediction: latest No prediction : Below confidence threshold (60%).
Bet recommendation: No bet recommendation.
Chidi Njokuani
Record: 25-11-0
Height: 6' 3"
Reach: 80"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 4.72
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 62%
Str Def: 57%
Carlos Leal
Record: 22-7-0
Height: 5' 11"
Reach: 74"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 9.57
TD Avg: 0.75
Str Acc: 50%
Str Def: 53%
#8 Ode Osbourne vs Alibi Idiris (Flyweight)
Model prediction: latest No prediction : Below confidence threshold (60%).
Bet recommendation: Ode Osbourne (+122) — Stake $2.27
Ode Osbourne
Record: 13-9-0
Height: 5' 7"
Reach: 73"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 3.07
TD Avg: 1.09
Str Acc: 41%
Str Def: 47%
Alibi Idiris
Record: 11-1-0
Height: 5' 6"
Reach: 68"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.47
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 50%
Str Def: 53%
#9 Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule (Flyweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Alden Coria (71.8%)
Bet recommendation: No bet recommendation.
Alden Coria
Record: 11-3-0
Height: 5' 8"
Reach: 67"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.89
TD Avg: 2.78
Str Acc: 44%
Str Def: 78%
Luis Gurule
Record: 10-2-0
Height: 5' 5"
Reach: 64"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 4.93
TD Avg: 0.41
Str Acc: 42%
Str Def: 61%
#10 Nora Cornolle vs Joselyne Edwards (Women's Bantamweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Joselyne Edwards (72.8%)
Bet recommendation: No bet recommendation.
Nora Cornolle
Record: 9-3-0
Height: 5' 7"
Reach: 67"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 2.75
TD Avg: 0.25
Str Acc: 54%
Str Def: 58%
Joselyne Edwards
Record: 16-6-0
Height: 5' 8"
Reach: 70"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 4.73
TD Avg: 1.29
Str Acc: 53%
Str Def: 50%
#11 Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano (Welterweight)
Model prediction: latest No prediction : Below confidence threshold (60%).
Bet recommendation: Ramiz Brahimaj (-128) — Stake $3.63
Ramiz Brahimaj
Record: 13-5-0
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 72"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 2.23
TD Avg: 1.74
Str Acc: 46%
Str Def: 44%
Punahele Soriano
Record: 12-4-0
Height: 5' 11"
Reach: 72"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 4.66
TD Avg: 1.83
Str Acc: 54%
Str Def: 47%
#12 Phil Rowe vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Welterweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (65.2%)
Bet recommendation: No bet recommendation.
Phil Rowe
Record: 11-6-0
Height: 6' 3"
Reach: 80"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.50
TD Avg: 0.52
Str Acc: 50%
Str Def: 51%
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Record: 9-2-0
Height: 5' 11"
Reach: 72"
Stance: Switch
SLpM: 9.71
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 78%
Str Def: 64%
#13 Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle (Featherweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Yadier del Valle (68.3%)
Bet recommendation: Jordan Leavitt (+300) — Stake $3.45
Jordan Leavitt
Record: 12-3-0
Height: 5' 9"
Reach: 71"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 2.49
TD Avg: 2.92
Str Acc: 61%
Str Def: 57%
Yadier del Valle
Record: 10-0-0
Height: 5' 9"
Reach: 69"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 6.25
TD Avg: 2.08
Str Acc: 67%
Str Def: 52%
#14 Juliana Miller vs Carli Judice (Women's Flyweight)
Model prediction: latest Prediction: Carli Judice (82.5%)
Bet recommendation: Juliana Miller (+525) — Stake $1.15
Juliana Miller
Record: 5-3-0
Height: 5' 7"
Reach: 66"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 2.73
TD Avg: 2.20
Str Acc: 44%
Str Def: 36%
Carli Judice
Record: 5-2-0
Height: 5' 7"
Reach: 68"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 10.73
TD Avg: 0.70
Str Acc: 52%
Str Def: 55%

Event Statistics

Fighting Styles

  • 13 strikers
  • 8 grapplers
  • 7 well-rounded fighters

Card Profile

  • Average listed SLpM across card: 4.71
  • Recent-fight pace proxy (Sig Strikes/min): 13.43 (about 72th percentile vs recent cards)
  • Average takedown attempts pace proxy (TD Avg): 1.63

Notable Records

  • Current champions: None
  • Former champions: Joseph Morales, Dricus Du Plessis, Sean Strickland
  • Bonus leaders (top 5): Michel Pereira (9 bonuses), Ode Osbourne (6 bonuses), Serghei Spivac (6 bonuses), Geoff Neal (5 bonuses), Sean Strickland (5 bonuses)
  • Rivalries: Nora Cornolle vs Joselyne Edwards (1 previous fights)

Standout Fighters

  • Most accurate striker: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (78% accuracy)
  • Best striking defense: Alden Coria (78% defense)
  • Highest striking volume: Carli Judice (10.7 SLpM)
  • Strongest takedown pace: Jacobe Smith (7.4 TD avg)
  • Most experienced in field: Michel Pereira (45 recorded fights)

Model-Relevant Matchup Edges

  • Reach edge: Geoff Neal +4" vs opponent (Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic)
  • Reach edge: Jacobe Smith +4" vs opponent (Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell)
  • Reach edge: Zach Reese +4" vs opponent (Zach Reese vs Michel Pereira)
  • Reach edge: Chidi Njokuani +6" vs opponent (Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal)
  • Reach edge: Ode Osbourne +5" vs opponent (Ode Osbourne vs Alibi Idiris)
  • Win-rate gap: Alibi Idiris by 33 pts (Ode Osbourne vs Alibi Idiris)

Volatility Flags

  • High-finisher matchup: Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic (combined finish rate 82%)
  • High-finisher matchup: Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija (combined finish rate 86%)
  • High-finisher matchup: Zach Reese vs Michel Pereira (combined finish rate 64%)
  • High-finisher matchup: Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal (combined finish rate 68%)

Recent Form Momentum

  • Hot streaks (last 3): Yadier del Valle, Ramiz Brahimaj, Punahele Soriano
  • Skid watch (last 3): Michel Pereira

Market vs Model Tension

  • Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija: model-market gap 8.3 pts
  • Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle: model-market gap 7.9 pts
  • Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez: model-market gap 6.9 pts
  • Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano: model-market gap 5.5 pts

AI Summary

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