Event Summary

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres | June 27, 2026

Export snapshot

Latest export-web-predictions build: 2026-06-21T12:15:08.839668+00:00 (UTC).

Only one archived export on disk; run the pipeline again to diff changes.

Fight Details

Recommended stakes assume a $100 bankroll (Kelly sizing scaled from the planner export).

#1 Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev (Lightweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Manuel Torres (51.8%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Manuel Torres +100: model 51.8% vs line 50.0% (edge +1.8pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Rafael Fiziev +100: model 48.2% vs line 50.0% (edge -1.8pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Manuel Torres
Record: 17-3-0
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 73"
Stance: Switch
SLpM: 7.29
TD Avg: 1.72
Str Acc: 59%
Str Def: 54%
Rafael Fiziev
Record: 13-5-0
Height: 5' 8"
Reach: 71"
Stance: Switch
SLpM: 4.71
TD Avg: 0.83
Str Acc: 52%
Str Def: 49%
#2 Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira (Middleweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Shara Magomedov (50.3%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Shara Magomedov +100: model 50.3% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.3pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Michel Pereira +100: model 49.7% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.3pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Shara Magomedov
Record: 16-1-0
Height: 6' 2"
Reach: 73"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 5.93
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 62%
Str Def: 43%
Michel Pereira
Record: 32-14-0
Height: 6' 1"
Reach: 73"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 4.46
TD Avg: 1.21
Str Acc: 51%
Str Def: 51%
#3 Matheus Camilo vs Nazim Sadykhov (Lightweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Nazim Sadykhov (50.1%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Matheus Camilo vs Nazim Sadykhov | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Matheus Camilo +100: model 49.9% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.1pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Nazim Sadykhov +100: model 50.1% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.1pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Matheus Camilo
Record: 10-3-0
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 69"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 2.19
TD Avg: 4.43
Str Acc: 43%
Str Def: 64%
Nazim Sadykhov
Record: 11-2-1
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 69"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 4.79
TD Avg: 1.10
Str Acc: 49%
Str Def: 49%
#4 Charles Johnson vs Asu Almabayev (Flyweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Asu Almabayev (50.3%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Charles Johnson vs Asu Almabayev | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Charles Johnson +100: model 49.7% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.3pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Asu Almabayev +100: model 50.3% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.3pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Charles Johnson
Record: 19-8-0
Height: 5' 9"
Reach: 70"
Stance: Switch
SLpM: 4.77
TD Avg: 0.51
Str Acc: 49%
Str Def: 55%
Asu Almabayev
Record: 23-3-0
Height: 5' 4"
Reach: 65"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 2.31
TD Avg: 4.46
Str Acc: 50%
Str Def: 53%
#5 Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov (Middleweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov (50.8%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Brunno Ferreira +100: model 49.2% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.8pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Ikram Aliskerov +100: model 50.8% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.8pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Brunno Ferreira
Record: 15-3-0
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 72"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.77
TD Avg: 1.25
Str Acc: 50%
Str Def: 51%
Ikram Aliskerov
Record: 17-2-0
Height: 6' 0"
Reach: 76"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 6.86
TD Avg: 3.20
Str Acc: 64%
Str Def: 41%
#6 Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Abus Magomedov (Middleweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk (50.6%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Abus Magomedov | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Michal Oleksiejczuk +100: model 50.6% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Abus Magomedov +100: model 49.4% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Record: 22-9-0
Height: 6' 0"
Reach: 74"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 5.85
TD Avg: 1.02
Str Acc: 53%
Str Def: 59%
Abus Magomedov
Record: 28-7-1
Height: 6' 2"
Reach: 78"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.07
TD Avg: 2.61
Str Acc: 49%
Str Def: 55%
#7 Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov (Welterweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Eric Nolan (50.2%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Eric Nolan +100: model 50.2% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.2pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Farman Hasanov +100: model 49.8% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.2pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Eric Nolan
Record: 8-4-0
Height: 6' 2"
Reach: 74"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.14
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 39%
Str Def: 41%
Farman Hasanov
Record: 5-0-0
Height: --
Reach: --
Stance: n/a
SLpM: 0.00
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 0%
Str Def: 0%
#8 Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Julius Walker (50.6%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Julius Walker +100: model 50.6% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev +100: model 49.4% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Julius Walker
Record: 7-2-0
Height: 6' 4"
Reach: 78"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.73
TD Avg: 4.09
Str Acc: 53%
Str Def: 43%
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Record: 9-0-0
Height: 6' 2"
Reach: 78"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 7.40
TD Avg: 11.49
Str Acc: 67%
Str Def: 57%
#9 Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori (Middleweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Ismail Naurdiev (51.5%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Ismail Naurdiev +100: model 51.5% vs line 50.0% (edge +1.5pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Marvin Vettori +100: model 48.5% vs line 50.0% (edge -1.5pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Ismail Naurdiev
Record: 25-8-0
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 74"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 3.66
TD Avg: 1.48
Str Acc: 52%
Str Def: 64%
Marvin Vettori
Record: 19-10-1
Height: 6' 0"
Reach: 74"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 4.74
TD Avg: 1.41
Str Acc: 45%
Str Def: 56%
#10 Andrey Pulyaev vs Nursulton Ruziboev (Middleweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Nursulton Ruziboev (50.1%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Andrey Pulyaev vs Nursulton Ruziboev | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Andrey Pulyaev +100: model 49.9% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.1pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Nursulton Ruziboev +100: model 50.1% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.1pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Andrey Pulyaev
Record: 10-4-0
Height: 6' 4"
Reach: 78"
Stance: Southpaw
SLpM: 3.84
TD Avg: 0.29
Str Acc: 56%
Str Def: 55%
Nursulton Ruziboev
Record: 36-9-2
Height: 6' 5"
Reach: 76"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 2.59
TD Avg: 0.75
Str Acc: 46%
Str Def: 48%
#11 Andreas Gustafsson vs Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Daniil Donchenko (51.6%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Andreas Gustafsson vs Daniil Donchenko | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Andreas Gustafsson +100: model 48.4% vs line 50.0% (edge -1.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Daniil Donchenko +100: model 51.6% vs line 50.0% (edge +1.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Andreas Gustafsson
Record: 12-3-0
Height: 6' 1"
Reach: 73"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 5.82
TD Avg: 6.19
Str Acc: 71%
Str Def: 45%
Daniil Donchenko
Record: 14-2-0
Height: 5' 11"
Reach: 71"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 7.15
TD Avg: 0.77
Str Acc: 60%
Str Def: 72%
#12 Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto (Bantamweight)
Model prediction: mlp_f34 — Prediction: Jean Matsumoto (50.6%)
Bet recommendation: NO BET | no_side_qualified — Neither side cleared Kelly / edge / stake rules code=no_side_qualified | Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto | ML +100 / +100 | BR $5.24 · need ≥2.0pp edge vs two-way fair line · Kelly cap 8% · ≤8% BR per bet · min $1.00 stake | A Bekzat Almakhan +100: model 49.4% vs line 50.0% (edge -0.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy | B Jean Matsumoto +100: model 50.6% vs line 50.0% (edge +0.6pp vs +2.0pp floor); Kelly 0.00; edge below +2.0pp policy
Bekzat Almakhan
Record: 12-3-0
Height: 5' 7"
Reach: 68"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 1.61
TD Avg: 0.00
Str Acc: 34%
Str Def: 36%
Jean Matsumoto
Record: 17-2-0
Height: 5' 6"
Reach: 68"
Stance: Orthodox
SLpM: 5.37
TD Avg: 3.00
Str Acc: 39%
Str Def: 47%

Planner recommendation history

Each row is a saved bets.csv snapshot for this card (under web_predictions/history/). Stakes are the raw export values at each run’s bankroll. Fight details above normalize open stakes to $100 for easy comparison.

Run #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12
Current export (latest)
2026-06-21T12:15:08.839668+00:00		 NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET NO BET

Event Statistics

Fighting Styles

  • 9 strikers
  • 8 grapplers
  • 7 well-rounded fighters

Card Profile

  • Average listed SLpM across card: 4.38
  • Recent-fight pace proxy (Sig Strikes/min): 13.32 (about 72th percentile vs recent cards)
  • Average takedown attempts pace proxy (TD Avg): 2.16

Notable Records

  • Current champions: None
  • Former champions: Daniil Donchenko, Israel Adesanya
  • Bonus leaders (top 5): Michal Oleksiejczuk (10 bonuses), Michel Pereira (9 bonuses), Rafael Fiziev (9 bonuses), Manuel Torres (6 bonuses), Marvin Vettori (5 bonuses)
  • Rivalries: No previous matchups

Standout Fighters

  • Most accurate striker: Andreas Gustafsson (71% accuracy)
  • Best striking defense: Daniil Donchenko (72% defense)
  • Highest striking volume: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (7.4 SLpM)
  • Strongest takedown pace: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (11.5 TD avg)
  • Most experienced in field: Nursulton Ruziboev (47 recorded fights)

Model-Relevant Matchup Edges

  • Win-rate gap: Shara Magomedov by 25 pts (Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira)
  • Reach edge: Charles Johnson +5" vs opponent (Charles Johnson vs Asu Almabayev)
  • Reach edge: Ikram Aliskerov +4" vs opponent (Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov)
  • Reach edge: Abus Magomedov +4" vs opponent (Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Abus Magomedov)
  • Win-rate gap: Farman Hasanov by 33 pts (Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov)
  • Win-rate gap: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by 22 pts (Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev)

Volatility Flags

  • High-finisher matchup: Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev (combined finish rate 75%)
  • High-finisher matchup: Matheus Camilo vs Nazim Sadykhov (combined finish rate 75%)
  • High-finisher matchup: Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov (combined finish rate 87%)
  • High-finisher matchup: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Abus Magomedov (combined finish rate 67%)

Recent Form Momentum

  • Hot streaks (last 3): Michal Oleksiejczuk
  • Skid watch (last 3): Marvin Vettori

Market vs Model Tension

  • No major model-market gaps (5+ points) right now.