Logistic Regression Model

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Upcoming Event Predictions

event date fighter_a fighter_b prob_a prob_b predicted_winner prob_diff bet_size note
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Alonzo Menifield Oumar Sy 32.0% 68.0% Oumar Sy 0.3595 None Kelly <= 0 for Oumar Sy (prob: 0.6798, odds: -750)
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Cody Durden Jose Ochoa 96.0% 4.0% Cody Durden 0.9206 50 None
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Cody Garbrandt Raoni Barcelos 23.4% 76.6% Raoni Barcelos 0.5311 9 None
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Edmen Shahbazyan Andre Petroski 19.8% 80.2% Andre Petroski 0.6045 41 None
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Jamey-Lyn Horth Vanessa Demopoulos 74.8% 25.2% Jamey-Lyn Horth 0.4961 None Kelly <= 0 for Jamey-Lyn Horth (prob: 0.7480, odds: -625)
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Kamaru Usman Joaquin Buckley 57.5% 42.5% None NaN None No bet: Kamaru Usman (prob: 0.5752) vs Joaquin Buckley (prob: 0.4248) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Malcolm Wellmaker Kris Moutinho 47.0% 53.0% None NaN None No bet: Malcolm Wellmaker (prob: 0.4698) vs Kris Moutinho (prob: 0.5302) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Mansur Abdul-Malik Cody Brundage 58.1% 41.9% None NaN None No bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik (prob: 0.5814) vs Cody Brundage (prob: 0.4186) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Michael Chiesa Court McGee 48.5% 51.5% None NaN None No bet: Michael Chiesa (prob: 0.4850) vs Court McGee (prob: 0.5150) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Paul Craig Rodolfo Bellato 23.5% 76.5% Rodolfo Bellato 0.5307 None Kelly <= 0 for Rodolfo Bellato (prob: 0.7654, odds: -400)
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Phil Rowe Ange Loosa 61.1% 38.9% Phil Rowe 0.2216 17 None
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Ricky Simon Cameron Smotherman 42.1% 57.9% None NaN None No bet: Ricky Simon (prob: 0.4214) vs Cameron Smotherman (prob: 0.5786) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley 2025-06-14 Rose Namajunas Miranda Maverick 78.2% 21.8% Rose Namajunas 0.5649 18 None

Model Performance

Backtest Statistics

  • Total Return: 1649.34%
  • Annualized Return: 73.50%
  • Sharpe Ratio: 3.04
  • Sortino Ratio: 7.52
  • Max Drawdown: 49.86%

Betting Metrics

  • Total Bets: 2607
  • Win Rate: 47.22%
  • Average Win: $69.00
  • Average Loss: $-49.74
  • Average Bet Size: $49.68

Bankroll Growth

Bankroll Performance