Logistic Regression Model

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Upcoming Event Predictions

event date fighter_a fighter_b prob_a prob_b predicted_winner prob_diff bet_size note
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Calvin Kattar Steve Garcia 31.8% 68.2% Steve Garcia 0.3639 19 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Derrick Lewis Tallison Teixeira 68.1% 31.9% Derrick Lewis 0.3612 33 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Fatima Kline Melissa Martinez 41.9% 58.1% None NaN None No bet: Fatima Kline (prob: 0.4188) vs Melissa Martinez (prob: 0.5812) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Jake Matthews Chidi Njokuani 41.9% 58.1% None NaN None No bet: Jake Matthews (prob: 0.4188) vs Chidi Njokuani (prob: 0.5812) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Junior Tafa Tuco Tokkos 73.5% 26.5% None NaN None Missing odds for Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Kennedy Nzechukwu Valter Walker 73.8% 26.2% Kennedy Nzechukwu 0.4761 12 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Lauren Murphy Eduarda Moura 97.9% 2.1% Lauren Murphy 0.9571 50 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Max Griffin Chris Curtis 6.2% 93.8% Chris Curtis 0.8767 46 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Mitch Ramirez Mike Davis 17.7% 82.3% Mike Davis 0.6460 None Kelly <= 0 for Mike Davis (prob: 0.8230, odds: -1000)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Nate Landwehr Morgan Charriere 79.7% 20.3% Nate Landwehr 0.5940 44 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Stephen Thompson Gabriel Bonfim 51.7% 48.3% None NaN None No bet: Stephen Thompson (prob: 0.5172) vs Gabriel Bonfim (prob: 0.4828) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Vitor Petrino Austen Lane 66.6% 33.4% Vitor Petrino 0.3330 None Kelly <= 0 for Vitor Petrino (prob: 0.6665, odds: -700)

Model Performance

Backtest Statistics

  • Total Return: 1649.34%
  • Annualized Return: 73.50%
  • Sharpe Ratio: 3.04
  • Sortino Ratio: 7.52
  • Max Drawdown: 49.86%

Betting Metrics

  • Total Bets: 2607
  • Win Rate: 47.22%
  • Average Win: $69.00
  • Average Loss: $-49.74
  • Average Bet Size: $49.68

Bankroll Growth

Bankroll Performance