Random Forest Model

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Upcoming Event Predictions

event date fighter_a fighter_b prob_a prob_b predicted_winner prob_diff bet_size note
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Alexander Volkanovski Diego Lopes 58.9% 41.1% None NaN None No bet: Alexander Volkanovski (prob: 0.5892) vs Diego Lopes (prob: 0.4108) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Bryce Mitchell Jean Silva 53.0% 47.0% None NaN None No bet: Bryce Mitchell (prob: 0.5295) vs Jean Silva (prob: 0.4705) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Dan Ige Sean Woodson 56.5% 43.5% None NaN None No bet: Dan Ige (prob: 0.5647) vs Sean Woodson (prob: 0.4353) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Darren Elkins Julian Erosa 71.9% 28.1% Darren Elkins 0.4386 39 None
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Jim Miller Chase Hooper 51.8% 48.2% None NaN None No bet: Jim Miller (prob: 0.5185) vs Chase Hooper (prob: 0.4815) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Michael Chandler Paddy Pimblett 72.4% 27.6% Michael Chandler 0.4481 32 None
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Nikita Krylov Dominick Reyes 29.0% 71.0% Dominick Reyes 0.4206 33 None
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Nora Cornolle Hailey Cowan 46.6% 53.4% None NaN None No bet: Nora Cornolle (prob: 0.4656) vs Hailey Cowan (prob: 0.5344) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Sedriques Dumas Michal Oleksiejczuk 63.5% 36.5% Sedriques Dumas 0.2699 25 None
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Sumudaerji Mitch Raposo 62.0% 38.0% Sumudaerji 0.2392 None Kelly <= 0 for Sumudaerji (prob: 0.6196, odds: -210)
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Tresean Gore Marco Tulio 27.8% 72.2% Marco Tulio 0.4434 None Kelly <= 0 for Marco Tulio (prob: 0.7217, odds: -320)
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Yair Rodriguez Patricio Freire N/A N/A None NaN None Missing stats for Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Freire. Patricio Freire is DWCS-only
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2025-04-12 Yan Xiaonan Virna Jandiroba 50.7% 49.3% None NaN None Missing odds for Yan Xiaonan vs Virna Jandiroba

Model Performance

Backtest Statistics

  • Total Return: 2581.63%
  • Annualized Return: 88.38%
  • Sharpe Ratio: 3.38
  • Sortino Ratio: 10.00
  • Max Drawdown: 20.02%

Betting Metrics

  • Total Bets: 2068
  • Win Rate: 50.48%
  • Average Win: $73.24
  • Average Loss: $-49.46
  • Average Bet Size: $49.63

Bankroll Growth

Bankroll Performance