Random Forest Model

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Upcoming Event Predictions

event date fighter_a fighter_b prob_a prob_b predicted_winner prob_diff bet_size note
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Calvin Kattar Steve Garcia 25.8% 74.2% Steve Garcia 0.4832 27 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Derrick Lewis Tallison Teixeira 72.6% 27.4% Derrick Lewis 0.4523 37 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Fatima Kline Melissa Martinez 68.2% 31.8% Fatima Kline 0.3640 None Kelly <= 0 for Fatima Kline (prob: 0.6820, odds: -1300)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Jake Matthews Chidi Njokuani 33.5% 66.5% Chidi Njokuani 0.3302 11 None
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Junior Tafa Tuco Tokkos 56.7% 43.3% None NaN None Missing odds for Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Kennedy Nzechukwu Valter Walker 63.9% 36.1% Kennedy Nzechukwu 0.2788 None Kelly <= 0 for Kennedy Nzechukwu (prob: 0.6394, odds: -205)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Lauren Murphy Eduarda Moura 55.4% 44.6% None NaN None No bet: Lauren Murphy (prob: 0.5542) vs Eduarda Moura (prob: 0.4458) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Max Griffin Chris Curtis 33.8% 66.2% Chris Curtis 0.3240 None Kelly <= 0 for Chris Curtis (prob: 0.6620, odds: -310)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Mitch Ramirez Mike Davis 20.3% 79.7% Mike Davis 0.5940 None Kelly <= 0 for Mike Davis (prob: 0.7970, odds: -1000)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Nate Landwehr Morgan Charriere 49.2% 50.8% None NaN None No bet: Nate Landwehr (prob: 0.4925) vs Morgan Charriere (prob: 0.5075) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Stephen Thompson Gabriel Bonfim 48.3% 51.7% None NaN None No bet: Stephen Thompson (prob: 0.4832) vs Gabriel Bonfim (prob: 0.5168) - below confidence threshold 0.6
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira 2025-07-12 Vitor Petrino Austen Lane 50.1% 49.9% None NaN None No bet: Vitor Petrino (prob: 0.5005) vs Austen Lane (prob: 0.4995) - below confidence threshold 0.6

Model Performance

Backtest Statistics

  • Total Return: 2589.51%
  • Annualized Return: 88.48%
  • Sharpe Ratio: 3.39
  • Sortino Ratio: 10.01
  • Max Drawdown: 20.02%

Betting Metrics

  • Total Bets: 2069
  • Win Rate: 50.51%
  • Average Win: $73.25
  • Average Loss: $-49.46
  • Average Bet Size: $49.63

Bankroll Growth

Bankroll Performance